Recidivism

Forty percent of all persons with an initial event¹ in 2014 relapsed into crime within three years. The percentage that relapsed among women was 30 percent and 43 percent among men. The statistics show minor changes over time.

Nineteen percent of all persons with an initial event where women and 81 percent men.

The risk of relapsing into crime clearly increases with the number of previous adjudications². Ninety two percent among those with nine or more previous adjudications relapsed into crime within three years. Among those without any previous adjudication 21 percent relapsed into crime within three years.

The median number of days to the first relapse into crime was seven months and three weeks (239 days) 2014. The median number of days for women was 248 and 237 for men.

It is common that a liberty depriving sanction in the initial event is followed by a liberty depriving sanction in the relapse event. More than 50 percent had been deprived of liberty some time prior to the relapse event when previous adjudications 5 years before the initial event are included.

About the statistics

Brå has published new recidivism statistics from 2012. The statistics have been improved through various measures in terms of reliability, quality and timeliness. The recidivism statistics aim, as before, to give an overview of the level, structure and development of relapses into crime. The statistics also present new measures such as time to first relapse.

The statistics is divided into to two products, one final and one preliminary recidivism statistics. The difference is the follow up time and the time for collection of conviction decisions that include relapses into crime. These time periods are three years each in the final statistics and one year each in the preliminary statistics. This gives the possibility to present more reliable final statistics compared to the preliminary statistics.

Due to the changes the levels in the new and old recidivism statistics are not directly comparable. It is however possible to compare distributions and development patterns.

¹) An initial event is a release from prison, discharge from closed institutional youth care, discharge from forensic psychiatric care, completed intensive supervision with electronic monitoring or court sentencing with legal force or conviction decisions with other sanctions.

²) Previous adjudications mean court sentencing with legal force or conviction decisions 5 years before the initial event.